Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 30.115922 35.803607 42.040307 49.356331 57.671672 66.797027 77.535728
2025-02-09 22.127790 29.770563 38.974795 50.739828 65.231199 82.344307 103.915478
2025-02-16 17.453775 25.885925 36.801666 51.673876 71.081839 95.202685 127.057094
2025-02-23 13.948957 22.569361 34.458386 51.561372 74.976009 105.307041 146.872806
2025-03-02 11.102357 19.520672 31.841851 50.469787 77.088319 112.844414 163.432984
2025-03-09 9.164859 17.407411 30.144189 50.273572 80.135145 121.518491 181.672101
2025-03-16 7.059734 14.595133 26.941620 47.388584 78.919363 124.025644 191.394495
2025-03-23 6.214653 13.743030 26.655944 48.820595 84.010866 135.551661 214.077570
2025-03-30 5.137354 12.252244 25.089141 47.995357 85.511727 141.839941 229.459577
2025-04-06 4.728855 11.959168 25.519041 50.431804 92.186069 156.027920 256.843919
2025-04-13 3.631160 10.033975 22.753132 47.138080 89.385447 155.673488 262.600006
2025-04-20 3.227608 9.510947 22.515693 48.202740 93.735528 166.449644 285.438165
2025-04-27 2.997244 9.408555 23.216973 51.279380 102.108362 184.630677 321.482835
2025-05-04 2.625826 8.894016 23.045846 52.776829 107.983292 199.315115 353.082116
2025-05-11 2.267007 8.311833 22.634194 53.745236 112.957613 212.745702 383.244445
2025-05-18 1.890150 7.565136 21.734625 53.629329 115.929627 222.963882 408.650792
2025-05-25 1.519034 6.706275 20.423017 52.502340 116.909267 229.818715 428.824458
2025-06-01 1.261275 6.105693 19.609774 52.299744 119.556116 239.573681 454.053603
2025-06-08 0.932277 5.117573 17.632595 49.320356 116.591366 239.372419 462.646129
2025-06-15 0.827950 4.912921 17.657741 50.799357 122.460541 254.975971 498.380785
2025-06-22 0.664138 4.393047 16.721071 49.947073 123.562383 262.054206 519.796683
2025-06-29 0.619201 4.368773 17.190358 52.463123 131.701012 282.222613 564.420865
2025-07-06 0.438567 3.605855 15.314427 49.061604 127.259218 279.041334 568.265413